Mastery Predictive Assessments: High School End-of-Course Predictive Validity Report 2025
Do Mastery Predictive Assessments align with End-of-Course state assessments?
Instructure’s research team recently evaluated the predictive validity of Mastery Predictive Assessments (MPAs) across Tennessee, South Carolina, and Mississippi during the 2022–2023 school year. Analyzing data from over 54,000 students from nine school districts and a diverse range of locales, the study found strong correlations between students' performance on MPAs and their state end-of-course assessments in math, ELA, science, and social studies.
Key findings:
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High predictive correlations: Correlation analysis between the Mastery Predictive Assessment (MPA) cumulative benchmark and the End-of-Course state assessments demonstrated strong concurrent and predictive validity evidence, with all correlations exceeding the .70 standard.
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Strong classification accuracy: MPAs correctly identified student proficiency on state tests 84% of the time in grades 3–8 and 82% in high school, exceeding the 75% benchmark.
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Broad representation: Results held across states, reinforcing MPAs as a reliable benchmark tool for identifying students needing intervention.
Download the full report to explore detailed data tables, methodology, and actionable insights for your district.
